Charting the Biggest Comebacks and Collapses in Major History

The Economist recently published an article detailing their EAGLE system (Economist Advantage in Golf Likelihood Estimator), which projects how golf tournaments will finish, likely better than anyone has before, even noted statistician Ken Pomeroy. It's very complicated (you can read the explanation here) and requires some top-of-the-class mathematics lingo to explain, but the graphs it produces are perfectly blunt.

Using 15 years worth of major championship data, and over 400,000 golf holes, the system has highlighted the worst collapses (as well as the craziest comebacks) in golf history. Atop the list are Adam Scott at the 2012 British Open and Jordan Spieth at the 2016 Masters, but we already knew that.

The system can also be used to show the most improbable outcomes, like Keegan Bradley's 2011 PGA Championship victory, where he rose from the slimmest of single-digit chances to claim the Wanamaker Trophy. The article listed Bradley's win as a 1-in-10,000 type of result, which was second most imporbable behind Y.E. Yang's '09 PGA Championship win. Below is Bradley's win-expectancy chart from that event.

The system can also be used to show the most dominant performances in recent history, like Rory McIlroy's first major championship win at the 2011 U.S. Open. According to EAGLE, McIlroy had nearly a 90% chance of winning the event after just 36 holes. For context, any golfer reaching 60% win expectancy after just two rounds is rare. Only Tiger Woods ('02 U.S. Open, '09 PGA Championship) and Jordan Spieth (2015 Masters) had been able to do so in the past 15 years. Below is McIlroy’s 2011 U.S. Open graph.

It is worth noting that EAGLE is aiming to become even more robust a system moving forward. As outlined late in the article, The Economist hopes to adjust its algorithm to include player streakiness and recent play in the future.

Tiger Woods' first U.S. course opens for play

Tiger Woods may not be able to play golf following two back procedures in as many months, but Bluejack National, Woods' first course as a designer to debut in the U.S., opened for play on Thursday.

Only seven holes were unveiled Thursday, when nearly 100 members took to the course. But the full layout is expected be ready by early 2016.

“For this day to finally come is very exciting,” said Bryon Bell, President of Tiger Woods Design, via Golf.com. “It’s really important for this course to finally be open, and the real payoff is to hear the members talking positively about it.”

Woods, who wasn't able to attend the opening because of his back, worked on the layout design with former Tom Fazio associate Beau Welling.

“Sometimes architects give lip service to a playable, walkable course, but that’s what we did here,” Welling said. “We want people to enjoy the game and walk the course and that is what is happening. People said golf takes too long, but if it’s fun, people will do it for a long time.”

The official opening to members was Thursday, but a familiar face got to play a special Monday preview round. That player was former President George W. Bush, who played with his good friend and land developer Michael Abbott. Bush and Abbott played the seven-hole loop in 40 minutes, according to Golf.com.